Happy Wednesday! We have a full 11-game slate to tackle, and some major injury news that is having ripple effects on the rest of the slate. Make sure you follow along with our updated projection sheets and chat this evening as we get you ready for the big dance card this evening, and follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Russell Westbrook, OKC ($11,100)
There are already plenty of punts available if you want Westbrook, but like yesterday there should also be enough PG values to warrant fading him in cash (plus Cousins is my main target in that format on the high end). Westbrook is once again leading the NBA in usage rate even with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in town, and he’ll take on a Minnesota team that ranks 24th against opposing PGs (even though Tyus Jones is an individual improvement on defense over Jeff Teague). Westbrook has an elite 50% assist rate over the last 15 games.
Other options – Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, John Wall, Kemba Walker
Mid-tier options – Kris Dunn, Elfrid Payton, Dennis Schroder, Spencer Dinwiddie, Goran Dragic
Shabazz Napier, POR ($4200)
If Damian Lillard sits again tonight, don’t even blink. Just make Shabazz the first name you enter in and go from there. He’s had a 22% UR and 22% AR with Lillard off the court, which should lead to a price tag in the 6000s, and his $4200 tag is an absolute gift. Houston obviously ranks a lot better against PGs with Chris Paul there, but this is a pure price play for someone who is taking full advantage of his starters’ minutes. As lock as Lillard sits, Napier is a 100% lock.
Other options – Goran Dragic, Jamal Murray, Rajon Rondo, Ricky Rubio, Jarrett Jack, Frank Ntilikina
Jrue Holiday, NO ($7100)
Anthony Davis is sitting (surprise!), which means the rest of the Pelicans are getting major boosts, and you’re going to want multiple pieces of them even in a tough matchup against the Grizzlies. Memphis does rank last in pace but the absence of Mike Conley has really led to them dropping in overall defense (they rank 17th in overall team defensive efficiency and 20th against guards). Jrue sees his usage go to 25% without Davis on the court along with a 21% assist rate, making him the top per-dollar play at the SG position.
Other options – Tyreke Evans, Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, Khris Middleton
Mid-tier options – Lou Williams, CJ McCollum, Donovan Mitchell, Klay Thompson
Avery Bradley, DET ($4900)
Bradley can tear your heart right out on some nights, but he’s playing minutes in the upper 30s and is under 5k on FanDuel, which makes him a really tough fade. Bradley has actually posted a 25% UR without Reggie Jackson in the lineup, and gets a dream matchup against Brooklyn. The Nets rank fifth in pace and 23rd against opposing shooting guards, and Bradley can light up the scoreboard from downtown as well.
Other options – Will Barton, Caris LeVert, Courtney Lee, Justin Holiday, Wayne Ellington
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,700)
Giannis is rather like Westbrook where he’s not a priority play, but the weak SF position may push you in that direction for cash. Milwaukee gets a competitive environment against Orlando and the Magic rank seventh in pace, 27th in overall team defense, and 28th against SFs. Giannis has lost a lot of his assist rates with Eric Bledsoe in town, but he’s still an elite DFS option on a nightly basis.
Other options – Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler
Mid-tier options – Otto Porter, Harrison Barnes
E’Twaun Moore/Dante Cunningham, NO ($4700/$3500)
You’re looking to New Orleans for values again at the SF position with Anthony Davis expected to sit. Moore is the preferred option as he’s shown a healthy boost to his usage rate (up to 19%) with Davis off the court, and he’s also the most direct source of minutes. However, Cunningham is also an option at the minimum price on FanDuel. He has almost no usage, but his rebound rate spikes to over 12% with Davis off the court and he should see at least 30 minutes in AD’s place.
Other options – Taurean Prince, Josh Richardson, Wilson Chandler, Gerald Green, Joe Harris, Wesley Johnson
Kristaps Porzingis, NY ($9500)
Porzingis is a better value on DK than he is on FD, but if Michael Beasley is out you can justify even the $9500 price tag in cash on FD. KP’s rates have dipped in the month of January so far (which coincides with his declaration that he’s “tired”), but Chicago ranks 27th in defense against PFs and KP should still lead the pack in raw scores. You don’t need him in cash with some of the better values on the slate sitting at PF.
Other options – Draymond Green
Mid-tier options – Aaron Gordon, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tobias Harris
Bobby Portis, CHI ($4900)
I was all set to write about the Indiana PFs when Myles Turner was ruled out (they’re still great), but Portis has jumped the pack with the assumption that Nikola Mirotic is going to sit again tonight. The Knicks rank first against PFs so Portis’ matchup is by no means safe, but he averages over a fantasy point per minute and played 33 last game against Houston. At his price tag he could have a super inefficient game and still hit value, making him a lock in cash on this slate.
Other options – Damontas Sabonis, Thaddeus Young, Lauri Markkanen, Derrick Favors, Markieff Morris, Jordan Bell
DeMarcus Cousins, NO ($11,600)
I generally don’t like to attack Marc Gasol with my cash center, but you gotta play Cousins tonight. With Anthony Davis out this year, Boogie has rocked a 38% usage rate, 24% rebound rate, and 21% assist rate, making him almost an impossible fade in cash. Memphis ranks fourth against opposing centers, but they’ve fallen to 17th in overall team defense and also rank 25th in rebounding rate. Boogie won’t disappoint (unless he goes off the rails, which is always possible).
Other options – Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol
Mid-tier options – DeAndre Jordan, Hassan Whiteside, Clint Capela, Steven Adams
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($3700)
Adebayo went bonkers for 53.5 FD points in 32 minutes yesterday, and while it would be unwise to chase that production again, there are some good signs. One, James Johnson looks like he may be facing a suspension stemming from last night’s ejection which would at least keep Adebayo’s minutes in the upper 20s. Two, he played the majority of his minutes alongside Hassan Whiteside who also had a solid game. Throw in the fact that Indiana ranks 27th against centers and 20th in rebounding rate and you have possibly the best GPP punt of the night.
Other options – Enes Kanter, Kyle O’Quinn, Bismack Biyombo, Marcin Gortat